Start Date/Time: Friday, August 03, 2012, 10:30 AM
Ending Date/Time: Friday, August 03, 2012, 11:30 AM
Location: FSH 203
Speaker: Malin Pinsky, Postdoc, Princeton University
Title: "Can marine species keep up with climate velocity? Insights from bottom trawl surveys in North America"
ecent studies have indicated that climate velocities in the ocean can be as fast or faster than on land, and in some cases greater than 200 km/decade. The implications of this fact, however, remain unclear. Do marine species follow their thermal envelopes? Can marine species keep up? Which species are more likely to track changes in their environment? Our research uses the last few decades of bottom trawl surveys on the continental shelves of North America to test whether the direction and magnitude of range shifts among fishes and invertebrates are predictable from local climate and species traits.
We find that local differences in climate trajectories can explain otherwise surprising differences in direction and magnitude of shift, but that on average, marine species lag behind their thermal envelopes. Life history traits explain additional variation among species, and range shifts appear to be somewhat predictable even from very simple models. These results begin to indicate which types of species will be winners and losers under climate change and how fisheries are likely to be altered by shifting ranges.