Dr. David Schimel on "A Data Assimilation Approach to Studying Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Feedbacks"

Start Date/Time: Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 3:30 PM
Ending Date/Time: Tuesday, May 15, 2012, 4:20 PM
Location: ATG 310C

Speaker: Dr. David Schimel, Chief Science Officer and Principal Investigator of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), Boulder, CO
Title: "A Data Assimilation Approach to Studying Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Feedbacks"

Abstract:
Carbon cycle feedbacks roughly double the uncertainty of future climate responses to any given fossil emissions trajectory, based on today's models. This high uncertainty, associated with reasonably well validated models, is perplexing since model agreement during the period of observations appears reasonable. Extensive global model-data comparisons are in progress but the nature of the uncertainties challenges current observing and modeling strategies. Within the National Ecological Observatory Network, we have developed a strategy to address both initial condition and parametric uncertainty. The observing system is under construction and the data assimilation system, based on NCAR's Community Land Model, is being used for Observing System Simulation Experiments. I'll present an overview, discuss some of the critical sensitivity analyses that guide system development, and show preliminary results.