[ATMS 520] Dr. Clara Deser: "Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of natural variability"

Start Date/Time: Friday, June 03, 2011, 3:30 PM
Ending Date/Time: Friday, June 03, 2011, 4:50 PM
Location: JHN 075

Abstract: Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation and mitigation planning. In this talk, I will discuss the role of natural climate variability as a major source of climate change uncertainty in middle and high latitudes. Results are based on a new 40-member ensemble of forced simulations for the period 2000-2060 with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. I will also address questions such as, what is the minimum ensemble size needed to detect the forced climate response and when does the forced climate response first becomes detectable? Finally, I will give an estimate of the relative contribution of natural variability to climate projection uncertainty in the CMIP3 multi-model archive.