"Estimation and Prediction of Complex Systems: Progress in Weather and Climate," Greg Hakim (UW)

Start Date/Time: Thursday, December 03, 2009, 4:00 PM
Ending Date/Time: Thursday, December 03, 2009, 5:00 PM
Location: KNE 210

Title: "Estimation and Prediction of Complex Systems: Progress in Weather and Climate"
Speaker: Greg Hakim, UW Atmospheric Sciences

Abstract:
The use of observations and models to predict the future state of a system is a hallmark of the scientific method that often has practical application. As a result, estimation and prediction are central pursuits across a vast range of disciplines, including the physical, biological, and social sciences; engineering; and finance. In many cases the system of interest is composed of a large number of interacting components that render estimation and prediction difficult. This challenge motivates this talk in which I will review essential aspects of, and the basic theory for, estimating and predicting complex systems. One such system, Earth's atmosphere, will be used to illustrate techniques that deal with complexity. The success of these methods for reducing uncertainty in weather forecasts will be contrasted against a failure to reduce uncertainty in climate-change forecasts. This contrast motivates a mathematically based reconsideration of model formulation and calibration for complex systems. The next colloquium in the MathAcrossCampus series will be "Estimation and Prediction of Complex Systems: Progress in Weather and Climate," to be presented by Greg Hakim, UW associate professor of atmospheric sciences. The talk will be followed by a reception.

MathAcrossCampus is a quarterly colloquium series designed to expose students and researchers to a wide variety of applications of mathematics to real-world problems, with a special emphasis on the growing role of discrete methods in math applications.

The series consists of one main talk each quarter, followed by a reception, as well as a separate discussion with each speaker.