2009 PCC Summer Institute: "Pacific Northwest Climate: Past, Present and Future"

Start Date/Time: Monday, September 14, 2009, 12:30 PM
Ending Date/Time: Thursday, September 17, 2009, 12:30 PM
Location: Friday Harbor Laboratories, San Juan Island, WA

Climate scientists and society are struggling to foresee the manifestations of global and regional climate change. An evaluation of the impacts of climate change require interdisciplinary teams that can evaluate 1) the current factors that effect local climate, 2) how larger-scale forces influence those local factors and 3) how to manage climate-sensitive resources in the face of future climate changes. Developing research areas that inform public policy requires interactions between climate scientists, resource scientists, the public, and policy-makers. This PCC Summer Institute/Friday Harbor Symposium provides an intensive overview of key regional climate change issues of scientific and societal interest


  • Executive Summary by Nate Mantua
  • Graduate Student Perspectives on Meeting
  • Participant List
  • Speaker and Poster Abstracts
  • Detailed Agenda

  • Meeting Agenda

    Monday, September 14

  • Welcome: Ken Sebens (FHL) and Christopher Bretherton (UW)
  • A Brief History of Friday Harbor Labs, Claudia Mills (FHL)
  • Reception and Poster Session
  • 7:30 PM Evening Public Lecture- San Juan Community Theater
    Nate Mantua (UW) Past and Future Climate Change Impacts on Northwest Marine Ecosystems (see below)

  • Tuesday, September 15

    The Present: Patterns of Variability and Change in the Historical Record, Session Chair Todd Mitchell (UW)

  • "Regional complexity in the climate and weather of the PNW" Mark Stoelinga (3Tier)
  • "Impacts of global modes of climate variability on regional ecosystems" Mike Wallace (UW)
  • "Trends in NW climate in the historical record and their significance" Phil Mote (OSU OCCRI)
  • Panel Discussion: Regional climate variability and trends (PHIL MOTE, MIKE WALLACE, MARK STOELINGA)

  • "Regional modeling of climate change, air quality, and hydrologic impacts" Ruby Leung (PNNL Battelle)
  • "Climate over the Alps" Cathy Hohenegger (ETH/UW)

  • Downscaling Methods and Uncertainty, Session Chair Tom Ackerman (UW)

  • "Statistical vs. dynamical downscaling" Eric Salathé (UW)
  • "Greenhouse Gas emissions scenarios in the IPCC's 5th assessment report" Phil Mote (OSU OCCRI)
  • Panel Discussion (ERIC SALATHÉ, PHIL MOTE, CHRIS BRETHERTON), Moderator: Tom Ackerman

    Wednesday, September 16

    The Past: Paleoclimate and environmental perspectives of the Holocene, Session Chair Eric Steig (UW)

  • "The PNW’s glaciers and climate in the past few thousand years" Michael O’Neal (U. Delaware)
  • "Glacier Fluctuations in western Canada and the PNW" Brian Menounos (U. Northern BC)
  • "Archaeological evidence for climate change impacts on people and natural resources of the PNW" Frank Lake (USFS SW Station)
  • Panel Discussion: Paleo variability and impacts (MICHAEL O’NEAL, BRIAN MENOUNOS, ERIC STEIG)

    Climate Change Impacts on the Western US, Session Chair LuAnne Thompson (UW)

  • "Climate change impacts on hydrology in the western US" Jessica Lundquist (UW)
  • "Applications of the VIC Hydrologic Model -- Hydrologic Impacts in Pacific North America" Markus Schnorbus (U. Victoria/Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium)
  • "Projecting CC impacts on energy supplies and demands in the PNW" Wing Cheng and Ron Tressler (Seattle City Light)

  • Climate change impacts on the PNW region (continued), Session Chair Amy Snover (UW)

  • "Climate impacts on Puget Sound circulation and ecology" Jan Newton (UW)
  • "Ocean acidification impacts on coastal marine systems" Terrie Klinger (UW)
  • Panel discussion: Ecosystem threshold responses (JAN NEWTON, TERRIE KLINGER, CLAUDIA MILLS)

    Thursday, September 17, 2008

    Planning for climate change, Session Chair Lara Whitley Binder (UW)

  • "Incorporating science into climate change planning for state level policy decisions" Spencer Reeder (WA Dept. of Ecology)
  • Title TBA, Amy Snover (UW)
  • Panel Discussion: The role of climate science in adaptation planning (AMY SNOVER, SPENCER REEDER, NATE MANTUA)

  • SI Wrap Up, Graduate Students (PCC)

  • Reading sessions, focusing on the following papers, were conducted in August and September, led by Nate Mantua.

    Mantua, N.J., and P.W. Mote. (In review). The underlying rhythms: Characteristics of Pacific Northwest climate. Chapter 4 in A. K. Snover, E.L. Miles, and the Climate Impacts Group, Rhythms of Change: An Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

    Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and E.P. Salathé. 2008. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12: 193-206.

    "The Weather of the Pacific Northwest" by Cliff Mass. Chapters 1 and 2 (pages 1-27)(available in the UW libraries)

    Menounos, B., Osborn, G., Clague, J.J. and Luckman, B.H. (2008) Latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacier fluctuations in western Canada Quaternary Science Reviews, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.10.1018.

    Walker, I. R. and Pellatt, M.G. (2003)Climate Change in Coastal British Columbia-A Paleoenvironmental Perspective. Canadian Water Resources Journal. Vol. 28, No. 4, pgs. 531-566.

    Chatters, J.C., Butler, V.L., Scott, M.J., Anderson, D.M. and Neitzel, D.A. (1995), A Paleoscience approach to estimating the effects of climatic warming on salmonid fisheries of the Columbia River basin, p. 489-496. In R.J. Beamish [ed.] Climate change and northern fish populations. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 121.

    Smithers, J. and Smit, B. (1997) Human adaptation to climatic variability and change. Global Environmental Change. Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 129-146.

    Dessai, S. et al. (2009) Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation?, p. 64-78. In Adger, W.N., Lorenzoni, L., and O'Brien, K.L. [Eds]. Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Executive Summary of the Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment, available online at: http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciaexecsummary638.pdf