Hans von Storch on "Regional meteo-marine re-analyses and climate change projections.."

Start Date/Time: Monday, March 02, 2009, 3:30 PM
Location: Electrical Engineering Building (EEB) Room 303

Speaker: Hans von Storch, Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany

Title: Regional meteo-marine re-analyses and climate change projections: Results for Northern Europe and potentials for coastal and offshore applications

Abstract: A compilation of coastal weather analyses and climate change scenarios for the future for Northern Europe from various sources is presented. They contain no direct measurements but results from numerical models that have been driven either by observed data in order to achieve the best possible representation of observed past conditions or by climate change scenarios for the near future. A comparison with the limited number of observational data points to the good quality of the model data in terms of long-term statistics such as multi-year return values of wind speed and wave heights. These model data provide a unique combination of consistent atmospheric, oceanic, sea state and other parameters at high spatial and temporal detail, even for places and variables for which no measurements have been made. In addition, coastal scenarios for the coming century complement consistently the numerical analyses of past conditions. The backbones of the data are regional wind, wave and storm surge hindcasts and scenarios mainly for the North Sea.

We discuss the methodology to derive these data, their quality and limitations in comparison with observations. Long-term changes in the wind, wave and storm surge climate are discussed and possible future changes are assessed. A variety of coastal and offshore applications taking advantage of the data is presented. Examples comprise applications in ship design, oil risk modeling and assessment, or the construction and operation of offshore wind farms.

The presentation is based on the forthcoming article "Regional meteo-marine reanalyses and climate change projections: Results for Northern Europe and potentials for coastal and offshore applications" by R. Weisse, H. von Storch, U. Callies, and others

Topic Note: Dennis Lettenmaier arranged this seminar and feels that the approach taken by Hans and his team have important implications for evaluating changes in storminess in the PNW as a result of climate change. Please come if you can.

Location Note: As some of you know, it is very easy to get turned around in EEB. The best way to reach EEB 303 is by entering the building on the west side (the side closest to the Fountain) and using the stairs. Be aware that there are regular floors and Mezzanine level floors.