[CEE Seminar] Mo on Operational Drought Monitoring and Prediction at the Climate Prediction Center"

Start Date/Time: Tuesday, September 17, 2013, 2:00 PM
Ending Date/Time: Tuesday, September 17, 2013, 3:00 PM
Location: EEB 303

Speaker: Kingtse C. Mo, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/ NWS/NOAA

The CPC mission is to deliver climate prediction, monitoring and diagnostic products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. One of the climate strategy priorities is to monitor and predict drought and floods.

We routinely produce the Drought Outlook and participate in the Drought Monitor operation. To support the operational functions, we monitor the drought and water resources. The monitoring and prediction efforts are the collaboration of CPC, National Weather Service regional centers and universities. The drought monitoring is based on the observations such as the streamflow from the USGS and Standardized Precipitation Indices derived from the CPC unified precipitation analysis. We also rely on the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) to obtain information on the soil moisture for agricultural drought and runoff for hydrological drought.

For drought prediction, we have the precipitation and surface temperature forecasts from the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) on seasonal time scales. For the hydroclimate forecasts, we rely upon the CFSv2_VIC based forecasts and the Ensemble Flow Prediction.

The challenges and future plans will be discussed in the presentation.