2011 PCC Summer Institute "The Water Cycle in a Changing Climate "

Start Date/Time: Wednesday, September 14, 2011, 12:00 PM
Ending Date/Time: Friday, September 16, 2011, 6:00 PM
Location: Friday Harbor Laboratories

Once again a Friday Harbor Labs Centennial Symposium, the PCC Summer Institute in 2011 will be in mid-September. We'll look at the impacts of past and future climate change on the hydrological cycle. The primary focus will be on global-scale changes, including drought, impacts on water availability and agriculture. A secondary focus will be on predicted effects of a changed water cycle in the Pacific Northwest.

Poster Abstracts (pdf)
Participant List (pdf)
Final Agenda (9/13/2011)

NOTE: Many of the speakers have provided us with the slides for their talks below as a resource to the PCC community. Please make sure to credit any slides, graphics, or unpublished ideas from these presentations.


Wednesday, September 14
Evening Session: Precipitation trends in a changing climate. Chair: Chris Bretherton

7:00 PM Ken Sebens. FHL Welcome.
7:05-7:45 Dargan Frierson, UW: Understanding zonal-mean precipitation change in a warmer climate
8:00-8:45 Yi Ming, GFDL: Aerosol effects on rainfall patterns

Thursday, September 15
Morning Session: Impacts of Hydrological Change and Variability I. Chair: Eric Steig.

8:45-9:30 Greg Johnson (PMEL): Salinity Changes Indicate an Increased Hydrological Cycle over the Oceans
9:45-10:30 Ed Cook, LDEO: Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term paleoclimate context
11:15-12:00 Brian Smoliak: Rainfall and Crops in Subsaharan Africa - Past and Future

Evening Session: Impacts of Hydrological Change and Variability II. Chair: Jessica Lundquist.

7:00-7:45 Cecilia Bitz (UW): Arctic Precipitation and Its Climatic and Ecological Impacts
8:00-8:25 Todd Mitchell, UW: SST anomalies, predictability of rainfall and drought,
8:25-8:45 Mike Wallace, UW: Societal vulnerability to hydrological extremes
9:00-9:15 LuAnne Thompson, UW: Open discussion on future directions for the PCC

Friday, September 16
Morning Session: Hydroclimate Projection Challenges. Chair: Dargan Frierson.

8:45-9:30 Eric Salathe (UWB): Is extreme rainfall becoming more common?
9:45-10:30 Dennis Lettenmaier (UW): Hydrologic extremes in a changing climate -- modeling and observations
11:15-12:00 Chris Bretherton (UW): Why projecting regional precipitation trends is difficult

NOTE TO GRADUATE STUDENTS: Reading/discussion sessions for all participating graduate students are planned for: Tu 8/23, 8/30, and 9/6 from 11:30 to 12:30 in OSB 425.

Tuesday, 8/23/2011
Discussion Leader: Jack Scheff (ATMOS)
Readings to Discuss:
(1) IPCC AR4 Chapter
(2) Neelin et al. PNAS 2006

Tuesday, 8/30/2011
Discussion Leader: Angie Pendergrass
Readings: Ramanathan et al. PNAS 2005

Tuesday, 9/6/2011
Discussion Leader: TBD
Readings: Hosoda et al. J. Oceanography 2009

If you are a registered graduate student, please plan to attend. These sessions facilitate greater depth of understanding of topics discussed at the Summer Institute.