2014 PCC Summer Institute "Climate Variability and Uncertainty"

Start Date/Time: Monday, September 15, 2014, 2:00 PM
Ending Date/Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2014, 1:00 PM
Location: Friday Harbor Labs, San Juan Island

Led by Dargan Frierson, Atmospheric Sciences.


Meeting Agenda
Participant List
About Friday Harbor and the Labs


This years' summer institute will focus on the challenges of preparing for climate change in the presence of climate variability and uncertainty. The workshop is also a Friday Harbor Labs Centennial Symposium, and will promote interaction between diverse physical climate scientists, ecosystem scientists, health professionals, and social scientists. Bringing these groups together is essential if we want to be able to bridge disciplinary divides to better anticipate how to prepare for the challenges that climate change will bring to natural and human systems. We will focus here on systems that are most vulnerable to climate change including understanding the impacts on ecosystems already under threat from other human activities as well as the potential impacts on vulnerable human populations.

Topics for discussion include:

  • What are the primary sources of uncertainty in climate projections?
  • How can we use past climate variability to understand how natural and human systems will be impacted by future climate change?
  • How predictable is regional and global climate variability one to ten years in advance? Could better climate models lead to better predictions on these time scales?
  • Is climate change already affecting the likelihood of extreme floods and droughts regionally?
  • Given uncertainty in climate predictions on decadal time scales, how can the impacts of climate change on vulnerable human and natural systems be managed?
  • What are the social and economic drivers that have to be considered?

  • Graduate Student Discussion Sessions

    These are paper discussions, to help prepare graduate students for greater understanding of the summer institute presentations and discussions. Dargan is looking for volunteers to lead the discussions, please contact him if you can help out. (dargan@atmos.washington.edu)

    DISCUSSION 1: Thursday, August 21 from 2:30-4:00 pm in ATG 310

    Discussion Leaders: Nathan Steiger and Karl Lapo

    Deser, C., R. Knutti, S. Solomon, and A. S. Phillips, 2012: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 775-779, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1562.
    Article: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/deser.communicating_navari.ncc12.pdf
    Supplementary Material: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/deser.communicating_navari.suppmat.ncc12.pdf


    Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, and B. V. Smoliak, 2014: Projecting North American Climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 27, 2271-2296.

    Article: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/deser.projected_climate.jclim14.pdf
    Supplementary Material: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/deser.projected_climate.suppmat.jclim14.pdf

    DISCUSSION 2: Thursday, August 28, 2:30-4:00pm in ATG 310

    Discussion Leader: Bryce Harrop
    Topic: Linking extreme weather events and climate.

    Reading: Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave
    F. E. L. Otto, N. Massey, G. J. van Oldenborgh, R. G. Jones, and M. R. Allen
    DOI: 10.1029/2011GL050422

    DISCUSSION 3: Thursday, September 4, 2:30-4:00pm in ATG 310

    Discussion Leaders: Alex Lenferna and Alison Saperstein
    Topic: Decision making in uncertainty and public perceptions

    Reading: Josyln, S. and LeClerc J. (2013) Decisions With Uncertainty: The Glass Half Full. Current Directions in Psychological Science. 22:308